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Convened NewsIsland outcast on the brink as its people clamour for a better lifeOn the last day of 1958, Cubans, exhausted by the repression of the Fulgencio Batista regime, welcomed in a new hope, a new beginning, in the form of Fidel Castro, his brother Raúl and Che Guevara. They hoped that the trio would generate wealth, stability and freedom.<br/> <br/> They did not get it. Fifty years on, the grandchildren of the Cuban Revolution are awaiting another beginning. Last weekend, Raúl Castro, the newly appointed President of Cuba, hinted at the unthinkable. In his first speech to the National Assembly, he hinted that he may draw an end to rationing and introduce reform into the farming sector – reform that he introduced in the 1990s to stop Cubans from starving, a move that was rescinded by his elder brother.<br/> <br/> He also reiterated his admiration of the Chinese model of economic reform – a model that has allowed foreign companies to take minority stakes in state-owned businesses. His comments sparked speculation that Raúl may emerge as the leader that the nonsocialist world has been waiting for. His speech triggered a debate over whether he may be minded to open Cuba to wider foreign investment.<br/> <br/> Mauricio Font, of the City University of New York, said: “The Cuban economy has no choice. Raúl has acknowledged this. Cuba has exhausted its savings, and investments have to come from somewhere. They are no longer able to generate sufficient savings on their own. They have to look to outside.”<br/> <br/> It is not only Raúl’s words that have given Cubans cause for hope. He has already taken steps to decentralise the production and distribution of milk within an economy that is 97 per cent controlled by the military and perceived as the most centralised socialist state in the world.<br/> <br/> Although Cuban experts broadly agree that economic reform will not happen overnight, many of them believe that Raúl will head for a short-list that includes the end of rationing, agricultural reform, incentives for remittance payments (expatriates sending money home) and, most critically, opening the door to foreign investment.<br/> <br/> Cuba already has a few foreign partners - Venezuela, China, Canada, Spain and Brazil – which invest in oil and tourism across the island, but for the country to expand, Raúl will have to coax more funding from its existing commercial allies and broaden the pool of investors.<br/> <br/> One of the world’s leading experts on Cuba, Jorge Castañeda, the former Foreign Minister of Mexico, said: “Since what they have now doesn’t work, they have to do something. But what the Chinese do isn’t recessarily an option for Cuba. China is very big and has conducted its reforms over a long period.<br/> <br/> “Raúl has to widen the pool of countries allowed to invest in Cuba. He must extract funding from Europe and beyond, not just from Mexico, Brazil and Spain. Part of the problem is that Raúl would like to implement the economic reforms of China without the political reforms.”<br/> <br/> Raúl needs no reminding of the perils of depending on too few trading and investment partners. Until the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin was Cuba’s biggest customer, buying 85 per cent of the island’s exports, principally sugar, in return for cheap oil. In the 1990s, as <i>glasnost</i> foreshadowed the disintegration of the Soviet empire, Cuba’s foreign market disappeared and Cubans starved.<br/> <br/> Although Venezuela and China took the place of the Soviet Union – Cuba pays for Venezuelan oil with doctors – and Canada and Spain were allowed to build hotel resorts along the Cuban coastlines, the foreign investment was too limited to offset Havana’s sliding economy, principally oil, tourism and farming. After 2002 the Castro regime stopped using United Nations measures to calculate GDP, so economists stopped using Cuban numbers.<br/> <br/> Critically, Raúl has already said that he will try to remove restrictions that stifle growth and noted that it was time to revalue the Cuban peso. Havana operates a debilitating dual-currency system whereby Government salaries are paid in the almost worthless peso while the administration restricts the distribution of the convertible peso, which can be exchanged for foreign currency. The system led to government workers being far worse off than those who earn the convertible currency, barely able to subsist even with their monthly ration books.<br/> <br/> After Raúl’s speech last weekend, the University of Miami convened a talk to mull over his succession. Most of the speakers gave warning that although change was inevitable, it would not happen overnight, as Raúl struggled to appease hardliners, the leader of whom is his brother. At the conference, Jaime Suchlicki, the director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami said: “What I expect is that he [Raúl] will open up the rural areas for more privatisation in the agricultural [sector], he may open up to some foreign investment, particularly in offshore petroleum [drilling] and, in limited ways, in the tourist industry. But we don’t see at this point any move towards a market economy and certainly no move towards major political changes.”<br/> <br/> So is Cuba on the brink of significant economic change? “Cuba is unpredictable,” Professor Castañeda said. “Normally, you would expect incremental change, along with a honeymoon period. But it could start tomorrow morning. Cuba is so closed, we have no way of knowing what the Cuban people are really thinking. So who knows?”<br/> <br/> <b>Life and times</b><br/> <br/> <b>Revolution, 1959-89</b> Fidel Castro becomes President in 1959, with his brother Raúl as deputy. In 1960, all business is nationalised with no compensation. In 1972, Cuba becomes a full member of Soviet-based Council for Mutual Economic Assistance <br/> <br/> <b>Collapse, 1989-93</b> Cuba’s economy collapses as the Soviet Union – accounting for 85 per cent of Cuba’s exports - disintegrates. Moscow stops buying sugar. Cubans starve <br/> <br/> <b>“The special period”, 1993-96</b> Raúl Castro starts programme of modest privatisation in farming. Lets farmers profit from selling produce, after paying tax to Havana. Raúl allows Spanish and Canadian tourist companies to develop hotels and resorts. Cubans start modest enterprises, such as selling fast food on streets. By 1996, GDP estimated to have grown by 8 per cent <br/> <br/> <b>Retrenchment and Decline, 1996 to present</b> Raúl’s reforms stagnate. In 2003, Fidel reverses them. Fidel recentralises decision-making, abolishes dollar as legal tender and cuts small private sector. Regime becomes more repressive. Economy slows, but Venezuelan oil and Chinese money help prop it upRead Full Article Still waiting to be hammered by Northern RockTIMING is everything in this game. Within hours of last Sunday’s piece, saying one key element of Alistair Darling’s recovery plan should be avoiding the nationalisation of Northern Rock, he was announcing that very thing at a hastily convened Treasury press conference.Read Full Article World Briefing | Asia: Thailand: Democracy Returns, and Politics Comes Full CircleParliament convened for the first time since last month’s election and since Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted as prime minister in a military coup in 2006.Read Full Article Fed establishes another baleful landmarkThe last time that the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point or more in one go was in August 1982. Back then the global economy was enveloped in a thick cloud of misery. Total US economic output had fallen by 7.5 per cent over the previous year and unemployment had risen to its highest level since the Great Depression.<br/> <br/> The last time the Fed cut rates at an emergency meeting outside its regular schedule of policymaking gatherings was on the first day that markets resumed trading after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Markets had been closed for four straight days and the fear of dislocation caused by the attacks forced the Fed to cut rates to stave off what many feared would be a global financial and economic panic.<br/> <br/> Yesterday the Fed uprooted both of those landmarks. It cut its key federal funds rate at a hastily convened emergency meeting by three quarters of a point to 3.5 per cent.<br/> <br/> Putting yesterday’s almost unprecedented move in this historical context gives some idea of the concern at the US central bank about the outlook for the economy. But the timing of this extraordinary rate cut also raises a serious question for the Fed’s credibility: did the leadership of the world’s most powerful central bank panic in response to a financial market crisis?<br/> <br/> Only six weeks ago, at the last regular meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed seemed relatively unfazed by the proliferating evidence of economic weakness caused by the continuing credit crunch. At that meeting Ben Bernanke, the Chairman, and his colleagues explicitly rejected the pleas of many in financial markets - and one of their own committee members – for a more aggressive response. They cut rates by just a quarter-point. Since then, of course, the economic picture has darkened considerably – with further stagnation in the labour market, in consumer spending and in housing.<br/> <br/> But all of this has been known for at least the past week or so. The Fed’s next regularly scheduled meeting is only a week away, and recent comments by Mr Bernanke had indicated that the Fed was going to cut rates then – by at least half a percentage point. So why move yesterday?<br/> <br/> The most troubling possible explanation for yesterday’s decision is that Mr Bernanke may have been trying to use monetary policy to avert a financial meltdown yesterday after the global equity collapse on Monday. US markets were closed on Monday, increasing the likely selling pressure on Tuesday and, while it is unlikely that the rate cut was a direct attempt to shore up equity markets, a really steep fall in stock prices would only further weaken confidence. Since the Fed was ready to act anyway next week, why not bring the expected cut forward and head off a financial bloodbath?<br/> <br/> If that was what the Fed was thinking, it may have staved off one crisis but opened the door to a bigger one. As of yesterday afternoon, the dramatic rate cut certainly seemed to have had some positive effect. Equities retraced huge losses in the early morning.Read Full Article Thailand: Democracy Returns, and Politics Comes Full CircleParliament convened for the first time since last month’s election and since Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted as prime minister in a military coup in 2006.Read Full Article External News for: convenedMayawati Garland Lands Her In Controversy, Meeting Convened - india-server.comThe HinduMayawati Garland Lands Her In Controversy, Meeting Convenedindia-server.comMayawati was garlanded with a garland made of Rs.1000 notes in Lukhnow on Monday which has drawn the Income Tax department's attention owing to which the ...Amid garland furore, Maya convenes party meetingPress Trust of IndiaMayawati presented garland made of hundreds of Rs. 1000 notesHindustan TimesIT department to probe in Mayawati's garland caseMyNews.inHindustan Times -Hindustan Timesall 655 news articles »Mayawati Garland Lands Her In Controversy, Meeting Convened - india-server.comThe HinduMayawati Garland Lands Her In Controversy, Meeting Convenedindia-server.comMayawati was garlanded with a garland made of Rs.1000 notes in Lukhnow on Monday which has drawn the Income Tax department's attention owing to which the ...Amid garland furore, Maya convenes party meetingPress Trust of IndiaMayawati presented garland made of hundreds of Rs. 1000 notesHindustan TimesIT department to probe in Mayawati's garland caseMyNews.inHindustan Times -Hindustan Timesall 655 news articles »Obama: No crisis in Israel-US ties - Jerusalem PostCBC.caObama: No crisis in Israel-US tiesJerusalem PostWhile Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu convened his six senior ministers to discuss the tension with Washington, US President Barack ...Top ministers debate US crisisYnetnewsThere's more to US-Israel crisis than Netanyahu vs. ObamaHa'aretzUS Mulls Own Plan for Mideast TalksNew York TimesXinhua -Al-Arabiya (press release) (subscription) -AFPall 7,256 news articles »Mayawati Garland Lands Her In Controversy, Meeting Convened - india-server.comThe HinduMayawati Garland Lands Her In Controversy, Meeting Convenedindia-server.comMayawati was garlanded with a garland made of Rs.1000 notes in Lukhnow on Monday which has drawn the Income Tax department's attention owing to which the ...Amid garland furore, Maya convenes party meetingPress Trust of IndiaMayawati presented garland made of hundreds of Rs. 1000 notesHindustan TimesIT department to probe in Mayawati's garland caseMyNews.inHindustan Times -Hindustan Timesall 655 news articles »Obama: No crisis in Israel-US ties - Jerusalem PostCBC.caObama: No crisis in Israel-US tiesJerusalem PostWhile Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu convened his six senior ministers to discuss the tension with Washington, US President Barack ...Top ministers debate US crisisYnetnewsThere's more to US-Israel crisis than Netanyahu vs. ObamaHa'aretzUS Mulls Own Plan for Mideast TalksNew York TimesXinhua -Al-Arabiya (press release) (subscription) -AFPall 7,256 news articles »Vaginal birth after C-section gets boost by NIH-convened expert panel - Baltimore SunNational PostVaginal birth after C-section gets boost by NIH-convened expert panelBaltimore Sun... is safe for most women and more practitioners should encourage it, a panel of experts convened by the National Institutes of Health said Wednesday. ...National panel weighs in on vaginal births following cesarean sectionColumbus DispatchPanel: Women need chance to avoid repeat C-sectionThe Associated Pressall 366 news articles » |
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