Vladimir Putin’s Surprise Choice Keeps The Country Guessing About His Heir

President Putin yesterday stunned Russia’s political elite by appointing an unknown junior politician as the new Prime Minister three months before parliamentary elections.

By choosing Viktor Zubkov, head of a financial monitoring agency, to the largely powerless post of Prime Minister, Mr Putin deliberately left open the key question of who will succeed him in the presidential elections next March.

Had he appointed the current front-runner, Sergei Ivanov, the powerful First Deputy Prime Minister, it would have seemed like a signal that Mr Putin had already indicated his successor – and might have begun to drain his authority.

Instead, Mr Putin appeared to be telling Mr Ivanov, his long-time ally and favourite of the so-called power ministries, and the other main presidential contender Dmitry Medvedev, who is also a First Deputy Prime Minister, that he remains firmly in charge at the Kremlin.

Mr Ivanov, who appeared confident and relaxed when talking yesterday to The Times and other western correspondents, said only that Mr Zubkov was a well-balanced choice as new Prime Minister.

President Putin was in Sochi yesterday, having returned from a visit to the Middle East, when he accepted the resignation of Mikhail Fradkov, the outgoing Prime Minister, and his entire government.

The timing of the reshuffle sent two clear signals: first that Mr Putin remains firmly in charge, has no need to hurry back to Moscow, and will by no means be a lame duck before the presidential campaign officially begins.

He also appears to be responding to popular criticism of the previous government, and is giving his new Prime Minister a chance to drop several unpopular former ministers.

These include Mikhail Zurabov, the health and social affairs minister whose disastrous attempt to replace entitlements and privileges for pensioners and others with monetary grants caused a huge outcry two years ago. Another man who could lose office is Andrei Fursenko, the education and science minister, who has often been criticised for the widespread corruption in this area.

There was also some speculation that two other prominent ministers, German Gref, the economy minister, and Alexei Kudrin, of finance, might be shifted – though keeping them on would be an important symbol of continuity.

Senior Kremlin sources yesterday made clear that Mr Putin is eager to avoid the impression that he will personally anoint his successor, in the way that he was chosen by President Yeltsin in 1999. They suggested that several candidates may enter the presidential race, and that a decisive role would be played by the largest party, United Russia, which backs President Putin. This party will hold a congress in October and announce its leading candidate for the Duma elections on December 2.

If so, this would represent an enormous step forwards for Russia towards a normal European way of choosing a new President. The sources also said, however, that Mr Putin was already thinking about what role he would play in Russia after his successor is chosen.

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