Victorious Mike Huckabee All Set To Put Squeeze On Mitt Romney

Mike Huckabee, having spent much of the past month accusing the multimillionaire Mitt Romney of trying to bully and buy his way to the Republican nomination, is now counting on others to twist the knife in his wounded rival.

Yesterday he was basking in a stunning victory — by a margin of 34 per cent to 25 — against Mr Romney in the Iowa caucuses where only three months ago the former Arkansas governor had been regarded as a no-hope candidate.

Despite Mr Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, spending 15 times more than him on the airwaves and on the ground, Mr Huckabee — who also lacked organisation on the ground and made a series of gaffes in the closing week — emerged triumphant with the backing of Evangelical voters who accounted for fully 60 per cent of a high Republican turnout.

But Mr Huckabee knows he faces an uphill struggle in New Hampshire where the Religious Right carries less sway and he is currently trailing in fourth place in polls. Instead, the “anti-Mitt” mantle is being passed to John McCain, who has staged a dramatic come-back in recent weeks to take the lead in the Granite state.

Mr Huckabee and Mr McCain have formed what one Republican strategist calls a “tag-wrestling” team to defend each other against Mr Romneys negative advertising attacks, which are already casting a dark cloud over New Hampshires airwaves.

Yesterday Mr McCain described Mr Romney’s strategy, which criticises his rivals’ record on tax and immigration, as “a little bit desperate”. He added: “It didn’t work in Iowa, I don’t think it will work in New Hampshire.”

Mr Huckabee, who appeared on no fewer than six morning talk shows yesterday, promised that he would not indulge in the “political dumpster-diving that some of the other candidates did” in Iowa. But he faces increasing scrutiny of his record in Arkansas, which has been loudly condemned by anti-tax groups — an important factor among New Hampshire’s fiscally conservative Republicans. He also has a shoestring budget and weaker ground operation than most of his opponents.

Yesterday he insisted that his campaign was about more than just “religious fervour — it’s about people who love America”. And, in his victory speech in Des Moines on Thursday night, Mr Huckabee even adopted similar language to that of the Democrat Barack Obama, saying that his win signalled the beginning of a “prairie fire of new hope and zeal”. He then, however, went on to hint at the hurdles lying ahead. “I wish it were all over tonight. If this was a marathon, we’ve only run half of it,” he said.

He acknowledged that “we only have a few days to close the sale” before New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday and suggested that his sights were already trained on later contests this month. “Then we’re on to South Carolina and Florida where we’re running first in the polls.”

Mr Romney, whose difficulties in Iowa included hostility from evangelical Christians towards his Mormon faith, did his best to congratulate Mr Huckabee before flying to New Hampshire. He landed shortly after 2am at Portsmouth international airport and was ready to greet voters at breakfast in the city’s Golden Egg Diner. “It will be a different fight here,” he promised.

Mr McCain, 71, was also in place at 7am, holding court with his advisers in the lobby of the Hilton Garden Inn in Manchester, talking repeatedly on his mobile phone and drinking coffee from a paper cup.

The Arizona senator was due to hold six events across the state yesterday, where he hopes to repeat his success in the 2000 primary when the state’s independent voters flocked to him. But the emergence of Mr Obama — who has strong appeal to the same constituency — may complicate the equation on Tuesday.

The Republican race remains wide open after Mr Huckabee’s win. In the past month, national polls have given the lead to three different candidates and, if Mr Romney fails again in New Hampshire, the battle is likely to continue beyond February.

Fred Thompson’s third-place Iowa finish, by a tiny margin over Mr McCain, will keep his faltering campaign on its feet for a while longer. Rudy Giuliani — sixth in Iowa — is hoping for a better showing on Tuesday before heading for delegate-rich states such as Florida where he is banking on a win to revive his White House hopes. Ron Paul, fifth-placed in Iowa, could do better in New Hampshire, where his libertarian message and internet-funded campaign will appeal to many voters.

The startling range of viable candidates reflects how Republicans have been weakened by President Bush’s seven years in office, with elements of the party’s fragile coalition of national security hawks, fiscal and religious conservatives pulling in different directions. Turnout at the Iowa caucuses was a higher-than-expected 122,000. But this figure pales in comparison with the Democratic Party’s record vote on Thursday in Iowa of 239,000.

Republicans in Iowa

Winners and losers

GOING UP

Mike Huckabee Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor, won Iowa on backs of Evangelical vote. Economic populism will be scrutinised in New Hampshire.

6% Chance of winning New Hampshire 16.6% Chance of winning Republican nomination 5.7% Chance of winning presidency

GOING DOWN

Mitt Romney the former Massachusetts Governor spent heavily to make himself the frontrunner in the early states. He must win in New Hampshire to have a real chance heading into the big primaries.

24% Chance of winning New Hampshire 15% Chance of winning Republican nomination 6.9% Chance of winning presidency

GOING UP

John McCain Senator on second run for White House. Looked dead and buried six months ago. Leads polls in New Hampshire and edging to the front nationally.

70% Chance of winning New Hampshire 32.4% Chance of winning Republican nomination 14.8% Chance of winning Presidency

GOING DOWN

Rudy Giuliani Perceived national frontrunner for much of last year, sixth place in Iowa was humiliation.

1.5% Chance of winning New Hampshire 27.1% Chance of winning Republican nomination 10.6% Chance of winning presidency

GOING SIDEWAYS

Fred Thompson Reports of his may have been exaggerated – but not by much.

0.5% Chance of winning New Hampshire 2.8% Chance of winning Republican nomination 0.8% Chance of winning presidency

Source: politics futures trading at realclearpolitics.com

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