U.S. Diplomat Hints At Delay For Kosovo Independence

DUBROVNIK, Croatia, July 8 — A senior United States diplomat, speaking at a conference in Croatia over the weekend, cast doubt on a quick resolution of Kosovos future, suggesting that an agreement that would enable it to claim independence might not come until next year.

The assessment by Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, is likely to be seen as a setback for Kosovos ethnic Albanian leadership. This spring, Western officials had held out hope that the future of the province, which technically remains part of Serbia, would be resolved within weeks. Mr. Fried told delegates at a conference on NATOs enlargement in this seaside Croatian resort that he hoped Kosovos future could be resolved in the months leading up to the alliances summit meeting in Romania next April.

I cant give a precise date, but I suspect it will be a number of months before the Bucharest summit, he said.

Mr. Frieds comments are the clearest indication to date that the United States now acknowledges that it is unlikely that Russia will soon agree to a United Nations plan that would grant the province independence under supervision of a mission led by the European Union. Senior European Union politicians at the conference on Friday and Saturday also cast doubt on whether an agreement could be reached this summer.

For the past eight years, the region has been administered by the United Nations after a 78-day NATO-led bombing campaign forced Serbian security forces, accused of committing widespread atrocities against ethnic Albanians, to withdraw from the province. With increasing impatience, Kosovos ethnic Albanians, who make up 90 percent of the provinces population, are pressing for independence. But Russia is supporting Serbia in its opposition to independence for Kosovo.

Kosovos Albanian leaders had hoped that President Bushs meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia this month might resolve the issue. But instead they left the Kosovo discussions to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov at a later date.

Western leaders and United Nations officials have also warned that further delays may ignite violence in the province.

On Thursday, Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, issued a report to the Security Council saying that if the provinces status remains undefined, there is a real risk that the progress achieved by the United Nations and the provisional institutions in Kosovo can begin to unravel.

And on Friday, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the NATO secretary general, said: It is important at this moment for all to exercise restraint and calm. But I think on the other hand that we should prevent unnecessary delay in trying to find a solution.

Despite those warnings, the emerging consensus among European and American policy makers is that the status quo will have to remain for months in the hope that Russia can eventually agree to a resolution allowing for effective independence for Kosovo. The gamble is that Kosovos ethnic Albanian leadership can maintain calm as long as it knows independence is not in doubt, Western diplomats here said.

We are going to keep on working within the United Nations, Mr. Fried said in an interview. We are not going to be rigid and doctrinaire. He was scheduled to meet with ethnic Albanian leaders in Kosovo on Monday.

Russia has rejected two draft resolutions in the Security Council, contending that an agreement between the Serbs and ethnic Albanians is necessary to resolve the issue. American officials have suggested that if Russia continues to reject the proposal before the United Nations, the United States could recognize Kosovos independence unilaterally.

But most European nations continue to seek a United Nations-sanctioned agreement.

Britain and the U.S. thought the Russians would go along with this, said a senior European politician with extensive knowledge of the Balkans, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of damaging the negotiations. Now the entire strategy has blown up in their face. But with the United States at odds with Russia over missile defense and other matters, Western officials also are conceding that the search for a resolution of the Kosovo issues may now be drawn out over many months.

If you think that this is a passing phase in Russia, then you are dramatically wrong, said Kai Eide, Norways senior diplomat and the author of a United Nations report in 2004 that first advocated Kosovos independence.

Mr. Fried, comparing the breakup of the Soviet Union to the breakup of Yugoslavia, of which Serbia was a part, said, They look at Yugoslavia as a microcosm of the Soviet Union, and they hate this.

Despite that, Mr. Eide and other European politicians said the West had to use the next year, if necessary, to find a solution that would gain Russian support. But so far, there are no alternative proposals.

Carl Bildt, Swedens foreign minister, said European foreign ministers recently discussed the possibility of alternative solutions that would lead to recognizing Kosovo without Security Council backing, but he said that the consequences of going unilateral are quite severe, and that it would be extremely difficult to find unanimous support among European Union nations.

But American and other officials warn that events in Kosovo may ultimately force Europe into taking a more resolute stance.

If the U.N. resolution does not work out, the Europeans will have to ask themselves how much violence are they prepared to take? one senior Western official said. At some point, he said, hard decisions will have to be taken by the United States and Europe.

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