Second CD By Maroon 5 Faces Great Expectations

LOS ANGELES, May 20 — Even an ardent fan could be forgiven for wondering just how Maroon 5 would sound on It Wont Be Soon Before Long, the follow-up to its wildly successful debut album, Songs About Jane, from 2002. After all, on its long journey to stardom this band abandoned its post-grunge roots for a radio-friendly pop-soul sound, even while dabbling in hard rock. (At the height of its success from that first album Maroon 5 closed live shows with a cover of AC/DCs Highway to Hell.)

Adam Levine leading Maroon 5 in a recent concert in Uniondale, N.Y. The group’s second album comes out tomorrow.

Adam Levine, the bands lead singer, said that when group members began recording the new album, in stores tomorrow, they decided to draw from more classic pop influences. He listened to old Michael Jackson music constantly, he said, including the album Off the Wall.

You go away for a long enough period of time, you feel a bit more insecure about your position, Mr. Levine said in an interview. But that melted away. Weve had enough time to rest and to regroup and make a great record, in my opinion.

As Maroon 5 finished its album, though, the group learned it would bear a heavier burden than creative reinvention, or even the typical post-blockbuster expectations. While Hollywood may be rejoicing in the fortunes of sequels like Spider-Man 3, the ailing music business is nervously rethinking the value of follow-ups.

That uncertainty was starkly evident in the deal making that ultimately led Maroon 5, which won the Grammy award for best new artist two years ago, to depart the fold of a major record label after a smash debut. The result speaks loudly about the nature of longevity in todays music business, in which sales are slumping, turnover on the Billboard charts is high, and platinum albums are scarce.

Songs About Jane sold an estimated 10 million copies worldwide, but that was not enough to assure top executives at Sony BMG, the music giant that distributed it, that the rights to Maroon 5s future recordings were worth the asking price. Instead Sony BMG sold its stake in the partnership with Octone Records, the start-up label that had signed and developed the band.

Waiting in the wings, however, was an eager new corporate home. In February Universal Music Group said it would take on a new partnership with Octone, with Maroon 5 as the principal act on the roster. Universal paid about $35 million for the stake in the new partnership, now called A&M/Octone, said people briefed on the deal, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they had not been authorized to speak publicly about it. Universals Interscope division will split profits on artists in A&M/Octone.

Early signs suggest that the new Maroon 5 album will be a hit, though how big is hard to say. Already it has generated record advance sales at iTunes, Universal executives said. And the first single, the 1970s disco-flavored Makes Me Wonder, is getting heavy radio play.

None of this has made it easier to predict whether the album or future efforts by Maroon 5 and other artists on the label will sell enough for Universals bet to pay off. (Maroon 5 is said to owe at least two more albums, with options for more.)

Rivals estimate that A&M/Octone will have to sell at least 15 million albums for Universal to break even on its investment. Universal insiders put the figure in the 10 million to 12 million unit range. With CD sales in the United States already sinking about 20 percent since a year ago and the industrys prospects still uncertain, either figure is a tall order.

And it is the long bet on relatively new talent that has made this deal so buzz-worthy. Its difficult if not impossible to realistically know what the consumer is going to make of a particular band five years from now, said Celia Hirschman, an independent marketing consultant and former major-label executive. In the last two years the record industry has changed so drastically that events that took place five years ago are no longer relevant. I think youre going to see less and less of these deals in the future.

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