Relentless Onslaught On London Led To Tory Victory

ITS been dubbed the "doughnut" strategy, the relentless, circular onslaught on the city of London that delivered victory and the coveted mayoral chains to Tory pin-up boy Boris Johnson — and it was masterminded by Australian political tactician Lynton Crosby.

With clinical precision and no apology, Mr Crosby — who reportedly earned £140,000 ($295,000) for his four-month stint — understood immediately that not only did his Oxford-educated jokester require a tight leash but that this was not the man for the tough, white neighbourhoods of the council estates or the enormous tracts of London dominated by immigrants.

Rather, he borrowed from his success with former Australian prime minister John Howard and targeted the middle-class, aspirational — but swinging — voter and focused on the bread-and-butter issues of transport, the cost of living and personal safety.

Drawing an enormous circle around the capital, resources were thrown into the outer boroughs, areas that had shown previously in voting data to have low voter turnouts but to be home to swinging voters leaning towards the Conservatives. In some areas, the strategy brought them out in almost three times the numbers seen last time around.

Just as he has done in Australia, Mr Crosby also did not forget the core conservative constituency. Enormous attention was paid to the blue-ribbon Tory seats to ensure high turnout in a poll where voting is not compulsory.

Brought in at the very end of last year, the mysterious Mr Crosby — "you know I dont do interviews" he responded to an email from The Age — reportedly established a punishing schedule for his 40-or-so workers, starting early, finishing late and demanding utter discipline seven days a week. Money — and there was a lot of it — was targeted carefully and strategically, while two highly experienced PR specialists (one a former councillor) were drafted to vet Mr Johnsons interviews and to keep him on message.

One insider noted in a Sunday newspaper: "Lynton stopped Boris being Boris … and it worked."

A prime example of the electoral strategy is revealed in the Bexley and Bromley areas, on the extreme south-east of Londons electoral map. The BBCs electoral website describes this area as dominated by managerial workers and owner-occupiers — rather than renters — and one with enormous numbers of commuters. However, these are also areas with pockets, particularly around the east end, that have been troubled by violence and have experienced far-right political activity and race-related crimes.

Voting data reveal that last time round in these areas, voter turnout for the Conservatives was low — only 41,679 voted for the Tory candidate compared to 57,193 for Mr Livingstone. This time, after three months of door-knocking, leaflet-dropping and enormous focus on transport and the cost of living, the turnaround was almost four to one — Mr Johnson picked up 122,052 votes and Mr Livingstone dropped to 40,670 first-preference votes.

The Tory winner in Bexley, James Cleverly, made clear on a political blogsite that the key had been strategy and attention to what people were saying on the streets.

He also wrote that Mr Crosbys strategic thinking and ability to demand discipline from his team (and rein in Mr Johnsons propensity to speak his mind) was crucial. "Boris Johnson, the joker, has very much been on the backburner. I think there has been a seriousness that hes been willing to show, which has caught a lot of people by surprise. And I think it has caught our opponents out," he wrote.

"The lack of any great imagination, certainly in Ken Livingstones proposals, were based on the fact that he was just expecting that Boris Johnsons campaign would just implode at some point. It hasnt happened."

In pubs and cafes over the weekend, the mayoral result was not only the topic of conversation but appeared to be almost unreal for Londoners: for the first time in 30 years, a Tory celebrity MP had not only managed to oust Labour but also to beat Ken Livingstone, who had held the mayoral reins for two terms.

Only a few months ago, he was seen as nigh on unbeatable, polling around 10 points better than Labour nationally. In the end, the margin of his defeat was decisive: 43% to 37%.

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