Nuclear Deal In Jeopardy After Coalition Bows To Communists

India’s landmark nuclear deal with the United States was in jeopardy last night after the Government indicated that it was unwilling to sacrifice the country’s ruling coalition and force early elections. The communist parties that back the Government have threatened repeatedly to withdraw their support over the deal, prompting widespread talk of a snap poll next year instead of in 2009.

Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister, told a conference in Delhi that he would continue to try to persuade the communists to back what he called an “honourable deal that is good for India and good for the world”. But both he and Sonia Gandhi, the Congress Party leader, emphasised that their priority was to see out the Government’s current term rather than to force the deal through at any cost.

“This Government still has one and a half years to complete its time. It is my hope and expectation we will stay the course,” said Mr Singh, who spearheaded two years of negotiations over the nuclear deal. “We are not a one-issue Government,” he added. “It is certainly true that if the deal doesn’t come through, it will be a disappointment, but it will not be the end of life.”

It was a clear change of tune, and cast doubts on whether the nuclear deal would be ready for approval by the US Congress before the end of the Bush Administration. The deal would allow India to import American nuclear fuel and technology for the first time in 30 years, despite having tested nuclear weapons and refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In return, it would have to permit international inspections and other safeguards at nuclear facilities.

It is designed to secure energy sources for the booming Indian economy and underpin a new strategic relationship between Washington and Delhi. But the communist parties that give the coalition its majority in Parliament say that it will make India subservient to US strategic interests and compromise its own military programme.

They have threatened to withdraw their support if the Government “operationalises” the deal by starting to negotiate an agreement on safeguards with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The crisis came to a head this week just as Mohammed ElBaradei, the agency chief, visited India to meet Mr Singh and other senior officials.

Until yesterday, the Government appeared determined to call the communists’ bluff, and an early election seemed inevitable. On Sunday, Mrs Gandhi denounced opponents of the nuclear deal as “enemies of progress and development”. Yesterday, she insisted that her comments had been misinterpreted and played down the importance of the deal. “This is just another issue among a large number of issues,” she said. “We’re not in favour of early elections . . . our deadline is 2009 and we’re going to do all we can to see to it that work to that deadline.”

Some analysts said that the Government was trying to cool the atmosphere before the next round of talks with the communists, scheduled for October 22, and was not necessarily backing down. Others said that the coalition had got cold feet about an early election and the future of the deal was now in question.

India had wanted to conclude an agreement with the atomic energy authority by the end of the month and get approval from the US Congress before the American presidential election. But the deal has also been criticised by Congress members, who say it undermines American efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

Pran Chopra, a political analyst, said that the Indian Government may have anticipated that the US Congress would not approve the deal without attaching conditions unacceptable to India. “India’s view is that America should take the blame,” he said. “It’s America that is shifting its position.”

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