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Iran N-plans Threat To World Sharemarkets, Says Former White House Adviser


IRANS insistence on developing nuclear capabilities has more potential to destabilise than the plunge in Chinese stocks that set off a one-day dive on world markets this week, says a former White House economic adviser.

Canonbury Group president Philippa Malmgren, who is in Australia to advise Deutsche Bank, said tensions were already rising in the Middle East, with the US accusing Iran of backing Iraqi insurgents.

Two US aircraft carriers were in the region, and if a solid link could be found between the Iranian leadership and the supply of weapons, conflict could ensue, she said.

Dr Malmgren, who regularly meets policymakers, heads of government and the boards of central banks, said Iran was also conducting military exercises in the region and an error, such as accidentally hitting a merchant navy vessel, could have severe consequences.

Part of the reason for the recent rise in oil prices has been growing concern about the threat of conflict in Iran — which could severely disrupt supplies.

West Texas intermediate crude oil traded at $US61.79 a barrel in New york yesterday, up US33¢.

St George Bank chief economist Steve Ryan said: "I think Iran will create a lot of uncertainty in the global markets. Geopolitical tension has been a pretty consistent factor over the last few years."

Mr Ryan said the situation with Iran was probably the sole factor driving oil prices higher at present. Visits from people such as US Vice-President Dick Cheney served only to remind Australian investors of the many problems in the Middle East, he said. "Its probably the last thing we need at the moment." he said.

Aside from geopolitical movements, corporate events may also add to market jitters.

Softbank, a Japanese holding company of technology stocks and the countrys third-biggest mobile phone operator, is adding to wobbles in the Tokyo market.

Concern that Softbanks accounts may come under closer attention from regulators have lopped more than 12 per cent from its share price in two days, contributing to a drop in the Japanese sharemarket.

The company, with a market value of $31 billion, has about $26 billion debt and about 150 subsidiaries.

http://geobay.com/7244a6

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