In Shirt-Sleeve Holiday Season, Overcoats Linger On The Racks

Retailers are calling it the Coat Crisis of 2006, a fashion fiasco measured in racks of unsold fur-lined shearlings at Saks Fifth Avenue and down puffer jackets at Bloomingdale’s.

Balmy temperatures on the East Coast, with average highs this holiday season 15 degrees warmer than last year, have been disastrous for sales of all kinds of cold-weather clothing, from cashmere caps to wool scarves.

What seemed like a meteorological aberration — the coatless, hatless, gloveless morning commute in Washington, New York and Boston — is starting to feel like the new normal, encouraging consumers to splurge on a flat-screen television instead of a peacoat.

The glut of winter wear has sent a chill through the executive suites of major retailers, who count on big profits from coats in the crucial holiday shopping season. They are even starting to grumble about the first “global warming Christmas.”

So like farmers praying for rain, merchants have begun scanning weather forecasts, hoping for a sudden drop in temperature to lift their sales.

“At first, you start to chuckle in the morning when it’s 50 degrees, then you start to snicker and then you start to curse,” said Rick Weinstein, director of sales and marketing at Searle, a Manhattan retailer that supplies coats to high-end department stores.

A few days before Christmas, temperatures remained in the mid-40s from Maryland to Maine. Alex Grossman, a 33-year-old New York City resident, buys a new winter coat every holiday season, waiting until the first cold snap. This year, it did not come.

“Now it’s so late in the season I won’t even buy one,” he said, standing sans coat in Midtown Manhattan Thursday afternoon as temperatures reached 45 degrees.

The NPD Group, a retail research firm, predicts that sales of outerwear will plunge at least 20 percent this holiday season, compared with last year, with the not-winter-like weather to blame. Retailers will not report holiday sales figures until January, but there are clear signs of trouble. Even apparel executives, generally an optimistic group, are acknowledging there is a problem.

“It’s a fact of life: you need cold weather to sell cold-weather products,” said Barry Kay, co-president of Herman Kay, a Seventh Avenue clothing company that supplies coats to department stores like Macy’s and J. C. Penney. The season, he said, “has been very tough.”

“I am still running in shorts,” Mr. Kay said of his morning jogs through Central Park. “That is not a good thing.”

Across the Northeast, the average high temperature since Dec. 1 has been 47 degrees, compared with 32 degrees during the period in 2005, according to Planalytics, which tracks weather for retailers.

In the metropolitan New York area, a retail mecca, the average high for the month of December has been 14 degrees warmer than in 2005 — 52 degrees, compared with 38 degrees, making this December the warmest since 2001.

This December may feel especially warm next to last year’s, which was the coldest in a decade for New York and the entire Northeast, according to Planalytics.

High temperatures, which the firm tracks, have a strong influence on purchasing patterns, because they typically occur during the afternoon — which is a peak shopping time of the day.

But warm weather is not the only obstacle this year to selling heavy winter coats, scarves and gloves. Several seasons ago, consumers starting wearing more layers, stacking corduroy blazers over cashmere sweaters over collared shirts over long-sleeve T-shirts — rendering heavy coats unnecessary in all but the coldest weather.

At the same time, millions of Americans are buying gift cards for friends and family members, rather than cashmere overcoats and down vests. By the time many people get around to cashing in their gift cards, jackets may be out of season.

“It’s a triple whammy,” said John D. Morris, senior retail analyst at Wachovia Securities, who tracks sales at mall stores. “Retailers are getting caught with their pants down — and their coats off.”

So from popularly priced chains like Gap to high-end stores like Barneys, retailers are slashing prices, with the coat department transformed into a sea of sale signs.

Bloomingdale’s has marked down coats by 30 percent, while dangling $100 off deals on the purchase of two or more. Express is offering 30 percent off hats, scarves and gloves. Gap is offering up to 50 percent off winter clothing — with a faux fur-trimmed parka, regularly $169, now just $68.

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