For Obama, It’s Now All But In The Bag

BARACK Obama is expected to claim the mantle of Democratic nominee this week when he passes a significant milestone.

A win in Oregon would ensure that he has more than 50% of the delegates available through primary contests.

Together with his lead in super-delegates, Senator Obama will claim that he is in an unassailable position, even though his rival, Hillary Clinton, continues to campaign as if there is still hope.

Barring a scandal that forces a big rethink, it is almost impossible for Senator Clinton to overtake him, even if she were to persuade the partys rules committee to reinstate the votes of Michigan and Florida. This might, on some calculations, put her ahead on the popular vote, but it will be the delegate lead that matters.

Senator Obama is set to use his moment of victory in Oregon tomorrow to drive home his argument that he has won where it counts: in the gruelling race across 46 states.

A win in Oregon would also serve another purpose: he would be able to argue that he can win in predominantly white states.

The two contests tomorrow offer an interesting juxtaposition and demonstrate that America is a patchwork of communities with differing world views.

According to a Portland Tribune poll, Senator Obama will easily win Oregon in the north-west, by as much as 20 percentage points.

In Kentucky, next to West Virginia, Senator Clinton is heading for a big win, by as much as 30 points. Yet both states have white populations greater than the average. Oregon voters are 90.5% white, and the Kentucky figure is 90.2%. The big difference is income, economic fortunes and education.

Oregon has been growing much faster in population than Kentucky as the drift to the west and better lifestyles continues. Median household income was $US42,570 in 2006, a little below the average but well above Kentucky.

Most Democratic voters in Oregon live in the cities, such as Portland, with conservative voters concentrated in the rural east and south. Voters are more likely to be tertiary educated and to have chosen Oregon because of its liberal attitudes. Kentucky is rural, more religious, and conservative.

The eastern part of the state will be a Clinton stronghold as it is poorer, older and predominantly working-class, with more similarities in attitudes to West Virginia, where she won well.

While Senator Clinton has avoided saying that such states as Kentucky and West Virginia will not vote for a black man, she all but said it in her coded message that she wins the working-class in these states.

A win in Oregon would enable Senator Obama to claim that he can indeed win in "white" states — and that the problem lies, perhaps, with attitudes dating back to the 1960s, not 2008.

Meanwhile, Senator Clinton has turned her anger on the Washington media, with TV commercials telling supporters not to believe pronouncements that she is finished.

Senator Obama has hit back hard at President George Bush, who used a visit to Israel to weigh into the presidential race by suggesting that some people were prepared to negotiate with the terrorists and radicals.

"George Bush and John McCain have a lot to answer for," Senator Obama said.

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