Bombs Signal A Turbulent Year For Thailand

BANGKOK, Jan. 6 — A string of lethal bombs that disrupted New Years celebrations here has signaled the start of a difficult year for Thailand as entrenched elites struggle for control of the countrys future.

It is still unclear who set the bombs, which killed three people and wounded more than 40 before and after the New Years Eve fireworks.

But the message they sent to Thais was that a showdown is likely in the coming months between the ruling military junta and the opponents it unseated in a coup more than three months ago.

The country is going to be in commotion, said Surin Pitsuwan, a former foreign minister who is no longer in the government. Old elements will certainly regroup. I think the ruling group has been jolted into a new realization that things are not going to be as calm as they thought.

A struggle for power that began with street demonstrations more than a year ago appears to be resurfacing after pausing for breath after the nonviolent coup on Sept. 19 ended the five-year tenure of Thaksin Shinawatra as prime minister.

It had seemed an almost painless, minimalist coup with the stated intention of setting Thailand back on the track of democracy, which Mr. Thaksin had been systematically undermining.

But the leaders of the coup, treading softly in an attempt to stay within the law — once they had seized power by force — had left Mr. Thaksins supporters free to regroup and plot a comeback.

On Friday, the military-appointed prime minister, Gen. Surayud Chulanont, warned of a dangerous time ahead and told government ministries and the public to be alert for possible violence.

We have to watch out and take care of places and our own safety for a certain period of time, at least the next one to two months, he said. He did not explain the time frame, but political tensions are not likely to dissipate so quickly.

Mr. Thaksin was abroad at the time of the coup, but he appears determined to return, and his network of patronage and power still permeates the country, from village headmen to the highest levels of government, the police and the business community.

Since it took power, the junta has increased its military readiness and warned of what it calls undercurrents of opposition from Mr. Thaksins backers.

The disruptions caused by the coup have created a range of potential enemies as well as openings for opportunistic political forces.

Speculation about the people behind the bombs includes not only Mr. Thaksins supporters but also other political groups; the police, who formed part of his base of power; disaffected soldiers; and even feuding members of the junta and the civilian government it appointed. Most analysts doubt that Muslim insurgents from southern Thailand were involved.

The new sense of crisis began with the dawn of the new year with accusations and insinuations, then a swarm of bomb threats, then troop deployments to provide security, then a tense round of rumors of a coup within a coup, which a chorus of military men strongly denied.

Defense Minister Boonrawd Somtas said Friday, The investigators have concluded that the bombers were men in uniform, both green and khaki, the colors worn by the military and the police.

General Surayut said those who planted the bombs and spread the coup rumors were aiming to create a state of confusion and chaos that would destabilize the government.

After seizing power, the junta appointed a civilian government and promised to produce a new constitution and to return the country to democratic rule with elections late this year.

But the democratizing trend in Thailand that reached its peak in 1997 with the adoption of a liberal Constitution could now be in decline for some time to come.

The decline began with Mr. Thaksin, who manipulated the Constitution to increase his power. He seized personal control of both its checks and its balances, packing government commissions and the Senate with his supporters while intimidating the press and marginalizing independent agencies.

Now there is concern that the countrys military rulers may seek to maintain some form of power. They have sent signals that the new constitution may offer fewer freedoms and more limitations than the one it is to replace.

At the moment, though, the countrys leaders are being criticized for being too scrupulous.

They have not seized the assets of Mr. Thaksin, a telecommunications tycoon whose billions have been one of his tools of power; they have not revoked his diplomatic passport; they have not brought corruption charges against him; and they have left his major supporters free to reorganize and plan.

To me, the bombs show that the coup has gone wrong, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University. They indicate that the military has lost control, has not been able to consolidate and demonstrate their rationale. The coup succeeded in ousting Thaksin but not much else.

On the battlefield, the generals efforts to contain the southern insurgency have been met by increased violence.

In governing they have stumbled over proposed regulations involving liquor sales and a lottery.

On the economic front they have been condemned by foreign investors and bankers for causing a stock market crash in mid-December when they imposed and then modified strict currency controls.

In their attempts to address corruption, a chief rationale for the coup, they are facing a stubborn bureaucracy that is heavy with Thaksin appointees and is prepared to wait them out.

In their stated aim to promote national reconciliation, the generals power grab seems only to have made things worse.

One concern among political analysts and diplomats is that the bomb attacks could lead to a harsher form of military rule and could delay the return to democracy.

The challenge to those in power, analysts say, is to reassert themselves as energetic managers and keepers of the peace without resorting to the heavy-handed measures more typical of military juntas.

But some members of the junta have let it be known that they are chafing at this slow pace and may already feel, in the words of Sunai Phasuk, a political analyst with the Human Rights Watch monitoring group, that the time for being a gentleman is up.

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