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AWB, Pool Growers Look Like Early McGauran Plan Losers


THE Federal Governments stop-gap plan to strip AWB of its monopoly on bulk wheat exports is endangering returns to growers in this years national pool and to AWB.

If the temporary holder of the export veto — Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran — allows a non-AWB group to export wheat, AWB will lose key income, and growers who have delivered to the pool are likely to receive lower prices.

Legislation giving Mr McGauran the temporary powers will be introduced into Parliament this week, but a spokesman for Mr McGauran declined to comment on what the minister would do with the veto.

AWB chairman Brendan Stewart said the Government did not want to hurt the 2500 farmers who had already delivered to the pool. Up to 800,000 tonnes of wheat are in storage.

Mr Stewart said estimated pool returns (EPR) for the national pool depended on the volume of grain. "The current EPR of $250 per tonne, plus Golden Rewards increments of about $10 per tonne, is based on a forecast national pool volume of 4 million tonnes," he said.

"If this is not achieved, then the EPR may be materially affected."

West Australian grain handler CBH has already indicated it will resubmit an application to export 2 million tonnes of wheat. Previous applications have been vetoed by AWB International.

Reports indicate that about 70 per cent of WA wheat has been warehoused due to farmer concerns over AWB. Mr Stewart said AWBs earnings were also hit by the volume in the pool and the performance of AWB harvest finance. AWB gets about 30 per cent of its income from the export wheat crop.

The drought that has slashed this years grain harvest — wheat, barley and canola output will be down 60 per cent — would also cut Australias gross domestic product by 0.5 per cent, the Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.

Farm GDP is tipped to fall from $46.8 billion last year to $41.3 billion in 2006-07, a fall of 11.7 per cent. Agricultural income will plummet by 72.4 per cent to $2.6 billion, the lowest level in a decade.

Austock analyst Paul Jensz said WA growers were taking a big gamble in trying to maximise their returns. "Its not a free kick for these guys … they are funding their crop with no access to loans or cash," he said.

"Rather than delivering into a pool and getting cash, these guys have no cash flow … they are incurring a financial loss."

AWB shares, which have lost more than half their value this year, closed 4¢ lower at $2.64.

http://www.awb.com.au

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